How Did Those Predictions From The Math Wonk Turn Out?

The Penn State Nittany Lion Women's Team placed 18th in the NCAA Division I Cross Country Championships in Terre Haute yesterday!   That's 5 straight top-20 finishes.

18 Penn State 482 53 60 111 118 140 185 209 Total Time: 1:47:19.00 Average: 21:27.80

In our previous post, we supplied predictions from 5000 simulations of the race by a "washed up grad student" .  Which Nittany Lions outperformed against the predictions?  How about the 8 Big Ten teams that make the trip to Terre Haute?

Well, 2 runners outperformed their predictions:

• Alison Willingmyre  Predicted finish 108th,  Actual finish  73rd   +35 
• Megan Ciasullo  Predicted finish 194th,  Actual finish  177th    +17

And as for the Big Ten Teams, only 1 team overperformed their predictions, while 6 underperformed and 1 came in just as predicted.

  5.   Michigan State     Predicted  4th      -1
  7.  Wisconsin              Predicted  7th      *
13.  Michigan               Predicted  5th      -8
18.  Penn State             Predicted  17th    -1
19.  Indiana                  Predicted  22nd   +3
22.  Illinois                   Predicted  15th    -7
23.  Ohio State             Predicted  16th     -7
28.  Minnesota             Predicted  26th     -2