How Will These Predictions Turn Out For The NCAA XC Championships?

These predictions were meticulously made by a "washed-up grad student" in a recent post on the message boards of LetsRun.com

He must have had a lot of time!

Cross Country Rankings

“Cross. . . country. . . time is relative” – Albert Einstein

These rankings are calculated using the following algorithm:

1. Gather all of the meets which the teams in the region competed in. For each pair of meets, use the individuals who ran in both meets to evaluate the difference in their speed.
2. Use least-squares to get an overall adjustment score for each meet.
3. Gather the teams from last year’s regional results and form their top 7 from their most recent results. SOME TEAMS DID NOT RUN THEIR TOP 7 IN THE MOST RECENT MEET. IF THIS IS THE CASE FOR YOUR TEAM PLEASE EMAIL ME AND I WILL FIX IT. (bmazaher at caltech dot edu)
4. For each member of a team’s top 7, adjust all of their performances according to the meet’s score.
5. Average each runner’s performances over the season. More weight is given to recent performances. More weight is also given to performances whose adjustment is more certain.
6. Rank all of the individuals in the meet and score the simulated results.

Interpret the results in the following way:

[Place] [Time] [Time behind leader] [Uncertainty of time] [Name] [School]

The uncertainty of the times is in seconds. That is, someone with a “time behind leader” of 30 and an uncertainty of 10 will likely run between 20 and 40 seconds behind the winner.

I have copied the Penn State top 7 predictions using 5000 simulations:

1. Kathryn Munks    30th      (24th-62nd)
2. Alison Willingmyre   108th    (88-131)
3. Danae Rivers    112th     (94-151)
4. Julia Paternain    137th    (98-153)
5. Megan Ciasullo  194th  (157-214)
6. Kileigh Kane   219th    (192-248)
7. Julia Guerra     238th   (200-247)

And here's the Team Scores for all the B1G teams:

• 4th   Michigan State    (4-6)
• 5th   Michigan     (5-8)
• 7th   Wisconsin     (6-10)
• 15th  Illinois      (14-19)
• 16th  Ohio State    (14-19)
• 17th   Penn State   (15-20)
• 22nd  Indiana    (19-25)
• 26th   Minnesota  (22-28)