How Did Those Predictions From The Math Wonk Turn Out?

The Penn State Nittany Lion Women's Team placed 18th in the NCAA Division I Cross Country Championships in Terre Haute yesterday!   That's 5 straight top-20 finishes.

18 Penn State 482 53 60 111 118 140 185 209 Total Time: 1:47:19.00 Average: 21:27.80

In our previous post, we supplied predictions from 5000 simulations of the race by a "washed up grad student" .  Which Nittany Lions outperformed against the predictions?  How about the 8 Big Ten teams that make the trip to Terre Haute?

Well, 2 runners outperformed their predictions:

• Alison Willingmyre  Predicted finish 108th,  Actual finish  73rd   +35 
• Megan Ciasullo  Predicted finish 194th,  Actual finish  177th    +17

And as for the Big Ten Teams, only 1 team overperformed their predictions, while 6 underperformed and 1 came in just as predicted.

  5.   Michigan State     Predicted  4th      -1
  7.  Wisconsin              Predicted  7th      *
13.  Michigan               Predicted  5th      -8
18.  Penn State             Predicted  17th    -1
19.  Indiana                  Predicted  22nd   +3
22.  Illinois                   Predicted  15th    -7
23.  Ohio State             Predicted  16th     -7
28.  Minnesota             Predicted  26th     -2

How Will These Predictions Turn Out For The NCAA XC Championships?

These predictions were meticulously made by a "washed-up grad student" in a recent post on the message boards of LetsRun.com

He must have had a lot of time!

Cross Country Rankings

“Cross. . . country. . . time is relative” – Albert Einstein

These rankings are calculated using the following algorithm:

1. Gather all of the meets which the teams in the region competed in. For each pair of meets, use the individuals who ran in both meets to evaluate the difference in their speed.
2. Use least-squares to get an overall adjustment score for each meet.
3. Gather the teams from last year’s regional results and form their top 7 from their most recent results. SOME TEAMS DID NOT RUN THEIR TOP 7 IN THE MOST RECENT MEET. IF THIS IS THE CASE FOR YOUR TEAM PLEASE EMAIL ME AND I WILL FIX IT. (bmazaher at caltech dot edu)
4. For each member of a team’s top 7, adjust all of their performances according to the meet’s score.
5. Average each runner’s performances over the season. More weight is given to recent performances. More weight is also given to performances whose adjustment is more certain.
6. Rank all of the individuals in the meet and score the simulated results.

Interpret the results in the following way:

[Place] [Time] [Time behind leader] [Uncertainty of time] [Name] [School]

The uncertainty of the times is in seconds. That is, someone with a “time behind leader” of 30 and an uncertainty of 10 will likely run between 20 and 40 seconds behind the winner.

I have copied the Penn State top 7 predictions using 5000 simulations:

1. Kathryn Munks    30th      (24th-62nd)
2. Alison Willingmyre   108th    (88-131)
3. Danae Rivers    112th     (94-151)
4. Julia Paternain    137th    (98-153)
5. Megan Ciasullo  194th  (157-214)
6. Kileigh Kane   219th    (192-248)
7. Julia Guerra     238th   (200-247)

And here's the Team Scores for all the B1G teams:

• 4th   Michigan State    (4-6)
• 5th   Michigan     (5-8)
• 7th   Wisconsin     (6-10)
• 15th  Illinois      (14-19)
• 16th  Ohio State    (14-19)
• 17th   Penn State   (15-20)
• 22nd  Indiana    (19-25)
• 26th   Minnesota  (22-28)

Some More Pics From The NCAA Regionals

Greg Fredericks sent me some exclusive photos from his vantage point at the Meet.

Alison Willingmyre

The PSU 1, 2 Place Finishers.

Turns out that Danae Rivers did not beat Alison Willingmyre at the Regionals, as Alison outleaned Danae at the finish.

I can't wait to talk about the many races that Greg had with my newest friend on the Interwebby thingie.  More to come...

Exclusive Pics From The NCAA Regionals

Thanks to Frit Cooper, we have these pics from the NCAA Regional XC Meet.  The Womens team won for the 3rd straight year (with 2 of their top runners scratched for the season!) and the Men placed 2 in the top 10, sending Timothy McGowan and Colin Abert to Nationals in addition to the 7 women.

Pos.	Penn State Women	Time
2	Jillian Hunsberger	20:05.4
5	Alison Willingmyre	20:15.1
6	Kathryn Munks	20:15.8
8	Danae Rivers	20:17.6
10	Greta Lindsley	20:21.6
1st	Penn State	31
Pos.	Penn State Men	Time
6	Timothy McGowan	30:40.1
9	Colin Abert	30:43.5
20	John McGowan	30:52.6
43	Andrew Sell	31:21.8
53	Bobby Hill	31:33.8
5th	Penn State	131